Fantasy Rugby Picks – Guinness Six Nations 2022 Round 4

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If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our latest instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Guinness 2022 Six Nations where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.

What will go down…

Into Round 4, and the final two weeks of the 2022 Six Nations. France remain in full contention for the Grand Slam, although there is still a lot of crucial Rugby to be played and it is not a foregone conclusion by any means.

This week we have a Friday nighter in Cardiff with Wales taking on France, so don’t leave it too late to update your teams! In the other two matches Italy host Scotland and Ireland visit Twickenham to take on England.

At the Principality Stadium on Friday night, tournament leaders France take on Wales. France showed their class away from home against Scotland in Round 3 and few will doubt them to fly again away to Wales. France enter the match without Damian Penaud, one of the stars of the tournament thus far, but will be buoyed by the return of Gabin Villiere. Wales have had a hit and miss tournament so far and are easily capable of delivering a shock but France should have simply too much class for them. The bookies agree, giving them a 10 point handicap.

In Rome, Scotland visit and despite the loss of Duhan Van Der Merwe to suspension, there will likely be a convincing win for Scotland. Italy will have a point to prove after the chaos of Dublin in Round 3, and while this probably represents Italy’s best chance of a win in this year’s tournament, it looks unlikely. The bookies have given Scotland a 20 point handicap.

Finally at Twickenham, England host Ireland. No doubt this will be a close run contest. Ireland are in better form and have been more impressive thus far, but England at home are a stern prospect and will be a huge challenge for Ireland. The bookies are struggling to seperate them, giving Ireland a small advantage and 1 point handicap.

Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)

  • 1 – Darcy Graham (Scotland) – Anytime scorer odds: 1.59
  • 2 – Kyle Steyn (Scotland) – Anytime scorer odds: 1.71
  • 3 – Stuart Hogg (Scotland) – Anytime scorer odds: 1.91
  • 4 – George Turner (Scotland) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.05
  • 5 – Gabin Villiere (France) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.3
  • 6 – Yoram Moefana (France) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.5
  • 7 – Ali Price (Scotland) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.6
  • 8 – Antoine Dupont (France) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.7
  • 9= – Monty Ioane (Italy) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.8
  • 9= – Chris Harris (Scotland) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.8
  • 9= – Rory Darge (Scotland) – Anytime scorer odds: 2.8

Expected to go well

*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)

HOOKERS

  • George Turner (Scotland)
  • Dan Sheehan (Ireland)

PROPS

  • Kyle Sinckler (England)
  • Tadhg Furlong (Ireland)
  • Ellis Genge (England)

LOCKS

  • Paul Willemse (France)
  • Seb Davies (Wales)*
  • Maro Itoje (England)
  • For players of The Rugby Magazine, also consider Sam Skinner, Tadhg Beirne and Cameron Woki

BACK ROW

  • Rory Darge (Scotland)
  • Gregory Alldritt (France)
  • Josh Van Der Flier (Ireland)
  • Sam Simmonds (England)

SCRUM-HALF

  • Antoine Dupont (France) – Captain Pick for The Rugby Magazine game
  • Ali Price (Scotland)

FLY HALF

  • Marcus Smith (England)
  • Finn Russell (Scotland)

CENTRES

  • Yoram Moefana (France)*
  • Chris Harris (Scotland)
  • Gael Fickou (France)

WINGERS

  • Darcy Graham (Scotland) – Official Game and SuperBru Captain Pick
  • Kyle Steyn (Scotland)
  • Gabin Villiere (France)

FULL BACKS

  • Stuart Hogg (Scotland)
  • Melvin Jaminet (France)

Supersub Strategy

New this week, for those playing the Official Game, we look at potential options for the SuperSub role.

Ultimately SuperSub is a bit of a lottery. You could luck out if one of the starting XV needs to go off in the early stages of the game, but likewise you could be at the mercy of a coach who decides to leave his backs on the bench for the entire 80 minutes, so you have to play the percentages and consider the risks.

For me the key areas to consider in a SuperSub are…

Will they come on, and will they play a significant period of time – For this we see Props, Hookers and Scrum-Halves tend to come on typically between the 45-60 minute point, so they usually get some good game time. With Locks and Loose Forwards it is not rare to see a starting Lock or Loose Forward play the full 80. That said, Locks and Back Rowers are not typically left on the bench either. Fly Halves are a bit more unpredictable, they could come on early if the game plan is not working but, likewise, sometimes a change is too disruptive and can be left late, and in some cases not at all. Centres and Back 3 is also a bit of a lottery.

History – Take a look at previous games to see if there is any trends in how the team operates their replacements. In some cases, past matches can provide a pretty educated insight into how a team will play their bench.

Options – Is your prospective SuperSub the only option in their position? If a team is playing a 6-2 split on the bench for example, then that is probably a good time to select a utility back as they are far more likely to come on in time to make a decent impact.

Likelihood of winning – As we know, the Official Six Nations fantasy game rewards the winning team well in points (especially when away from home). So you want a SuperSub on a winning team. At the same time you want to find a balance between having starters likely to win, as they are guaranteed nailed on points, while the SuperSub is reliant on getting sufficient game time. With this in mind I, more often than not, load up with 4 starters against Italy (especially “When in Rome”) and take my SuperSub from the team next most likely to win (backing my decision up by looking at the betting odds).

With this in mind, I will be looking to the following candidates to give the SuperSub selection to in Round 4…

  • Peato Mauvaka – H – France
  • Sione Tuipolutu – SH (Although covering 11-15) – Scotland
  • Stuart McInally – H – Scotland
  • Ben Vellacott – SH – Scotland

Under-the-radar pick

Kyle Steyn – Making his Six Nations debut following the suspension of Duhan Van Der Merwe, Kyle Steyn could not ask for a better opportunity to make a huge mark on the international stage. Since joining Glasgow Warriors, the Centre/Wing has made a great impact and has shown a great eye for the tryline. A reputation that was further cemented by scoring four tries on his Scotland debut against Tonga. While most will go for Graham or Hogg as captain, Steyn could well be a differential to make all the diffeence at this critical stage of the tournament. Well worth picking up!


If you back your Fantasy Rugby skills to lead you to Fantasy Six Nations glory and win you some stash while you are at it, then join our public fantasy league on the Official Six Nations Fantasy Game, where a signed paperback copy of the Fantasy Rugby Handbook and a Fantasy Rugby Geek Trucker Hat, will be on offer for the winner of the league. Join the league here.

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Fantasy Rugby Games for the 2022 Six Nations

A summary of the top games that you can play fantasy rugby for the 2022 Six Nations…

Pre-tournament articles

In case you missed any of our other pre-Six Nations articles, make sure you check out the following to help guide your pre-tournament preparations…

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If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all the 2022 Six Nations fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.

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