Aaaaaand we’re here! Domestic rugby is back and we couldn’t be happier about it!
This is the first of our weekly pre-match updates where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend!
Potential mismatches
This is the tightest Aviva Premiership to call for years, and as a result, with no recent meaningful form to go by, the bookies are being typically cautious when pricing up this weekends matches. Looking at Paddy Power’s handicap coupon they have given Wasps, Saracens and Harlequins the biggest points advantage, but the biggest margin they have given is 12 points.
In Paddy Power’s eyes the most nailed on games this weekend with a projected winning margin greater than 10 is…
- Wasps to beat Sale with a margin of 12 points
- Saracens to neat Northampton with a margin of 11 points
Harlequins aren’t too far off, expected to beat new boys London Irish with a margin of 9 points
Top 5 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)
- Christian Wade (Wasps) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.83
- Josh Bassett (Wasps) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- Denny Solomona (Sale Sharks) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.29
- Sean Maitland (Saracens) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.29
- Olly Woodburn (Exeter) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
Recommended captain pick in bold
FRONT ROW
Ashley Johnson* (Wasps)
Schalk Brits (Saracens)
Will Collier (Harlequins)
Vincent Koch (Saracens)
Tom Cruse (Wasps)
Dave Ward* (Harlequins)
LOCKS
Joe Launchbury (Wasps)
Maro Itoje* (Saracens)
Don Armand* (Exeter)
BACK ROW
Nathan Hughes (Wasps)
Jack Clifford (Harlequins)
Taulupe Faletau (Bath)
Mark Wilson (Newcastle)
SCRUM-HALF
Dan Robson (Wasps)
Danny Care (Harlequins)
FLY HALF
Jimmy Gopperth* (Wasps)
Alex Lozowski (Saracens)
Marcus Smith (Harlequins)
CENTRES
Joe Marchant (Harlequins)
Will Addison (Sale)
Phil Dollman* (Exeter)
Matt Toomua (Leicester)
OUTSIDE BACKS
Christian Wade (Wasps)
Willie Le Roux (Wasps)
Sean Maitland (Saracens)
Nathan Earle (Saracens)
Charlie Walker (Harlequins)
Under-the-radar pick
Marcus Smith – Set to make his debut against new boys London Irish on Saturday, wonderkid Marcus Smith is set to make his first appearance with the hype train in full flow. Ugo Monye recently described him as a “star player. He seems mentally to be the right kind of character, but skills-wise he has a great variety of passing, decent kicking, with good footwork and pace,”. A relatively unknown quantity but if the hype is anything to go by, he is well worth a punt!
If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all this year’s Aviva Premiership fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.