Here we go, Round 1!
If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our first instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Guinness 2024 Six Nations. This where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
Before we get going…
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Okay, back to the tips.
What will go down…
Into the first round of the 2024 Six Nations and we have 3 mouthwatering ties to kick us off.
First up, on Friday night it really doesn’t get any bigger. France v Ireland. This is the match that will set the tone for the whole tournament, the reigning champions and Grand Slam winners against the bookies favourites. France have home advantage, playing in Marseille, and this is one element that is tipping the bookies in the direction of France to win. Both teams have several new faces as a result of injuries, retirements and sabbaticals, so there is definitely an element of the unknown; but still the selected sides are full of class. This will more than likely be both these teams’ toughest match, so don’t expect massive fantasy hauls everywhere, but there will still be some solid scores, especially upfront and in those with kicking duty (likely Ramos and Crowley). With home advantage, the bookies have given France the edge, backing them to win by 4 points.
Next up, the attention turns to Rome, where Italy welcome Rugby World Cup semi-finalists England. It is a massive cliche, but the England squad is genuinely a mix of youth and experience, and there will be a number of new faces looking to make a big impact on the international stage. Italy’s World Cup started brightly but came off the rails in the second half of the pool stage in a massive way. The bookies are seeing nothing but a reasonably comfortable England win, giving them the win by 15 points.
Finally to the Principality, where Wales line up with a threadbare squad after injuries, retirements and their brightest young talent heading stateside to follow his NFL dream. This looks ominous for Wales, and a strong Scotland team will be looking on at this match to make a huge statement. The bookies are giving Scotland the win by 3 points, but it feels like it could be more, and the likes of Finn Russell and Duhan Van Der Merwe will be fired up to deliver a big win on the road.
Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via Bet365)
- 1 – Tommy Freeman (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.87
- 2= – Damian Penaud (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 2= – Elliot Daly (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 4 – Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.25
- 5 – James Lowe (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.45
- 6= – Jamie George (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.6
- 6= – Alex Mitchell (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.6
- 6= – Freddie Steward (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.6
- 9 – Kyle Steyn (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.75
- 10= – Dan Sheehan (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.88
- 10= – Ben Earl (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.88
- 10= – Fraser Dingwall (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.88
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
HOOKERS
- Dan Sheehan (Ireland)
- Jamie George (England)
PROPS
- Andrew Porter (Ireland)
- Pierre Schoeman (Scotland)
- Cyril Baille (France)
LOCKS
- Tadhg Beirne (Ireland)
- Maro Itoje (England)
- Paul Willemse (France)
BACK ROW
- Ben Earl (England)
- Caelan Doris (Ireland)
- Lorenzo Cannone (Italy)
- Charles Ollivon (France)
SCRUM-HALF
- Alex Mitchell (England)
- Gareth Davies (Wales)
FLY HALF
- Finn Russell (Scotland)
- George Ford (England)
CENTRES
- Yoram Moefana (France)*
- Fraser Dingwall (England)
- Huw Jones (Scotland)
BACK 3
- Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland) – Captain Pick
- Thomas Ramos (France)
- Damian Penaud (France)
- Tommy Freeman (England)
Supersub Strategy
For those playing the Official Game, we look at potential options for the SuperSub role.
Ultimately SuperSub is a bit of a lottery. You could luck out if one of the starting XV needs to go off in the early stages of the game, but likewise you could be at the mercy of a coach who decides to leave his backs on the bench for the entire 80 minutes, so you have to play the percentages and consider the risks.
As covered in detail in a previous post, for me the key areas to consider in a SuperSub are…
- Will they come on, and will they play a significant period of time
- How the team has used their bench in previous games
- The split of subs on the bench
With this in mind, I will be looking to the following candidates to give the SuperSub selection to in Round 5…
- Julian Marchand – H – France
- Nolann Le Garrec – SH – France
- Ciaran Frawley – FH – Ireland
- Immanuel Feyi-Waboso – B3 – England
Under-the-radar pick
Tommy Freeman – With just 3 international appearances to his name, the stage is set for Freeman to take the Six Nations by storm. From a fantasy perspective, he brings huge upside, having scored 11 tries across all competitions this season as well as being one of the top carriers in the Premiership with 509 metres carried. He also leads the Premiership in Line Breaks by quite some distance. At just 8 stars he really is huge value and will be in many a team for Round 1.
Come and join the FRG leagues for the 2024 Six Nations!
With the 2024 Six Nations just around the corner, make sure you join the FRG leagues which are now live on Superbru and the Official Six Nations game.
Join the Superbru league here and the Official Six Nations league here.
FRG Six Nations Guest posts
In the lead up to the Six Nations, George from FRG has been writing some guest posts for the Official Six Nations site and also contributing to an excellent Fantasy Six Nations post on W-Rugby. Have a read here 👇
- Six Nations Website: Fantasy Rugby Geek’s Guide to the Game
- Six Nations Website: Fantasy Rugby Geek’s Six Nations Value Picks
- W-Rugby: Six Nations Fantasy 2024: The Ultimate Guide
- Six Nations Website: Fantasy Rugby Geek’s 5 to watch
- Six Nations Website: Fantasy Rugby Geek’s MORE Six Nations Value Picks
- Six Nations Website: Fantasy Rugby Geek’s Team by Team Guide
Help shape the future of Fantasy Rugby
The good folks at Dream XV Rugby need your help to input on their future fantasy game, please spare 5 minutes to fill out this quick survey. Your feedback is hugely valued!
You can access the survey here.
FRG Premium – Join today to elevate your Fantasy Rugby performance
Now live on Buy Me A Coffee, unlock further fantasy rugby insights with Fantasy Rugby Geek Premium! Covering URC, Premiership Rugby, Champions Cup and Men’s and Women’s Six Nations. With your subscription, you’ll see the exact teams that I am playing with, get access to further private posts, and I will also offer you a personalised review of your teams, outlining any opportunities for improvement. All your subscriptions go back into the costs of running fantasyrugbygeek.com!
Elevate your fantasy rugby game – subscribe to Fantasy Rugby Geek Premium today and embark on a winning journey like never before! Act fast, and seize your ticket to fantasy rugby glory today!
A big thank you to all the FRG Members who have signed up to FRG Premium since the start of the RWC (Keeping you anonymous in case anyone in your mini leagues is reading! 🤫)
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If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all the Six Nations fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.
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