It’s time! If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our first instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Natwest Six Nations where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
What will go down…
Round 1 offers up some truly fascinating fixtures, and in the eyes of the bookies, there is one stand out fixture of Round 1 in terms of potentially high fantasy returns, one which will more than likely go the way of the form team in World Rugby and one extremely tight looking fixture that is simply too close to call.
In the bookies eyes (and in the eyes of most people) the biggest mismatch occurs in Edinburgh, where 500-1 tournament outsiders Italy visit a Scotland side who have high hopes and general expectations to have a strong Six Nations. Paddy Power have given Scotland a 24 point handicap, suggesting Gregor Townsend’s men will run riot against an inexperienced looking Italian side shorn of the explosive Jake Polledri, and with a waning Sergio Parisse, in what would appear to be his final Six Nations tournament.
Elsewhere, Ireland welcome England to the Aviva Stadium. Ireland enter the Six Nations off the back of an incredibly successful 2018 including a Grand Slam and a notable scalp of New Zealand. England have flattered to deceive in recent times with a tempestuous 2018, which was bookended by a mixed, but generally positive, Autumn International period. Ireland should have too much class and the bookies agree, giving Ireland a 9 point handicap.
The closest game to call is at the Stade de France where Wales take on a monstrous French side, who have named a XV with plenty of rotation of personnel, as usual. With France as predictably unpredictable as always, the bookies simply can’t separate them, with no handicap offered.
Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)
- 1= Jacob Stockdale (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 1= Tommy Seymour (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 3= Keith Earls (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 3= Blair Kinghorn (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 5= Stuart Hogg (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.3
- 5= Huw Jones (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.3
- 7= Yoann Huget (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.7
- 7= Damian Penaud (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.7
- 9= George North (Wales) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.8
- 9= Jonny May (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.8
- 9= Stuart McInally (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.8
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
HOOKERS
Stuart McInally (Scotland)
Rory Best (Ireland)
PROPS
Mako Vunipola (England)
Cian Healy (Ireland)
Tadhg Furlong (Ireland)
LOCKS
Maro Itoje (England)
Paul Willemse (France)
James Ryan (Ireland)
BACK ROW
Ryan Wilson (Scotland)
CJ Stander (Ireland)
Luis Picamoles (France)
Josh Van Der Flier (Ireland)
SCRUM-HALF
Conor Murray (Ireland)
Greig Laidlaw (Scotland)
FLY HALF
Finn Russell (Scotland)
Gareth Anscombe (Wales)
CENTRES
Robbie Henshaw (Ireland)*
Damian Penaud (France)*
Huw Jones (Scotland)
OUTSIDE BACKS
Jacob Stockdale (Ireland)
Keith Earls (Ireland)
Stuart Hogg (Scotland)
Tommy Seymour (Scotland)
Likely Kickers
Morgan Parra (France)*
Greig Laidlaw (Scotland)
Jonny Sexton (Ireland)
Owen Farrell (England)
Gareth Anscombe (Wales)
Tommaso Allan (Italy)
*On the one previous occasion that Lopez and Parra had played together for France, Lopez was handed kicking duties, but the consensus for Friday night from those in the know is that Parra will be on duty…
Expect Parra to kick on Friday though
— Paul Eddison (@pauleddison) January 28, 2019
Under-the-radar pick
Paul Willemse – While the selection of Centre Damian Penaud on the wing for France is a good value and recommended differential pick, our under the radar pick for Round 1 is Paul Willemse. Not so much for the likes of ESPN and SuperBru, but one player flying under the radar who should make a serious impact in The Rugby Magazine game is French debutant, Paul Willemse. In The Rugby Magazine, locks tend to score well, especially if they are all action hard working players with a bit of attacking flair. Paul Willemse has been pulling up trees in the Top 14 this season for Montpellier, racking up some huge tackles and turnover stats. Most impressive are his carry stats both in numbers carried and metres gained, and with a point in The Rugby Magazine for every 2 metres gained for those playing in the lock position, by the end of Friday night Willemse should have racked up a good score. He is currently 2% owned in The Rugby Magazine, and with France having named a monstrously huge pack (the heaviest pack in international rugby union history no less..) it’s clear that Brunel intends to use his weapons in the pack to do some serious damage with ball in hand…
The Games
If you back your Fantasy Rugby skills to lead you to Fantasy Six Nations glory and win you some stash while you are at it, then join our public fantasy league on The Rugby Magazine fantasy game, where a Fantasy Rugby Geek Trucker Hat will be on offer for the winner of the league. To join, Sign up to the game here & go to Leaderboards > Public Leagues and join “Fantasy Rugby Geek”. Good luck!
Looking for more Fantasy Rugby insight and Resources?
New for the 2018/19 season, we are proud to present the The Fantasy Rugby Geek Guide to Fantasy Rugby. An exhaustive collection of wisdom and experience gained from over a decade of fantasy rugby playing. Primarily aimed at less experienced players but with enough nuggets of wisdom and insight for even the most grizzled fantasy rugby veteran. There is something here for all players. The eBook is available to download now for just £3.99 on Gumroad as a PDF and £4.99 on Amazon in Kindle format – check it out!
If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all this year’s Six Nations fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.
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