If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our first instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Guinness 2025 Six Nations. This where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
Before we get into the picks, a quick request! I’m starting to do more and more on the Fantasy Rugby Geek YouTube channel, like the Round 4 picks above ☝️. If this video is helpful and you’d like to see more, I’d be massively grateful if you could subscribe to my channel. It’s growing quickly and I’d love to hit 1000 subscribers by the end of the Six Nations. Thank you!
Now, back to the Round 4 picks…
What will go down…
Into the fourth round of the 2025 Six Nations and we have 3 huge matches to look forward to.
Opening proceedings for Round 4 is arguably the game of the tournament, where the unbeaten Ireland (who are on track for a historic three-peat) host a France team who in Round 3 recorded the biggest winning margin of this year’s Six Nations, defeating Italy in Rome by 73-24. Both teams have named squads packed with fantasy talent and you can expect a monumental match-up as France try to ruin Ireland’s chances of making Six Nations history. The bookies are giving Ireland a very fine edge, making them favourites and setting them to win by just 1 point.
The late Saturday game sees Scotland host Wales. Wales may have been on the receiving end of their 15th defeat in a row in Round 3, but new coach Matt Sherratt presided over a much-improved looking Wales performance. This could be the Round that the losing streak, that hangs so heavily over the heads of the Wales team, comes to an end. They will however have a big job on their hands to take away a victory from Scotland at home, and Scotland themselves will want to get back to winning ways after a disappointing Calcutta Cup performance in Round 3. Scotland are the bookies favourite and are backing them to win by 16 points.
Wrapping Round 4 up on Sunday is England v Italy at Allianz Stadium Twickenham. England enter Round 4 off the back of two home wins against France and Scotland, while Italy enter off the back of a brutal loss to France in Rome. Despite this, it could be closer than many expect, and Italy will be looking to bounce back after such a tough experience in Round 4. Nonetheless, the bookies are backing England to be the biggest winners of the Round, giving them a predicted win by 22 points.
Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via BoyleSports)
- 1 – Tommy Freeman (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.67
- 2 – Ollie Sleighthome (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.73
- 3= – Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 3= – Darcy Graham (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 3= – Jamie George (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 6= – James Lowe (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 6= – Dan Sheehan (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 8 – Huw Jones (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.2
- 9= – Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.3
- 9= – Damian Penaud (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.3
- 9= – Ollie Lawrence (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.3
- 9= – Tom Willis (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.3
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
HOOKERS
- Jamie George (England)
- Dan Sheehan (Ireland)
PROPS
- Andrew Porter (Ireland)
- Ellis Genge (England)
- Pierre Schoeman (Scotland)
LOCKS
- Maro Itoje (England)
- Tadhg Beirne (Ireland)
- Dafydd Jenkins (Wales)
BACK ROW
- Ben Earl (England)
- Caelan Doris (Ireland)
- Gregory Alldritt (France)
- Jack Dempsey (Scotland)
SCRUM-HALF
- Antoine Dupont (France)
- Ben White (Scotland)
FLY HALF
- Fin Smith (England)
- Finn Russell (Scotland)
CENTRES
- Huw Jones (Scotland)
- Bundee Aki (Ireland)
- Jamie Osborne (Ireland)*
BACK 3
- Blair Kinghorn (Scotland)
- Tommy Freeman (England)
- Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland)
- Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France)
Recommended Captain Picks
This week I’d suggest the following as Captain Pick options…
- Blair Kinghorn (Scotland)
- Ben Earl (England)
- Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland)
Bargain buys on the Official game
The following players, valued at 12 stars or less, have been identified as potentially scoring well for their cost in the game and should be considered as good value enablers…
- Tom Jordan (Scotland) – Fly Half – 11.9 stars
- Fin Smith (England) – Fly Half – 11.4 stars
- Tommaso Allan (Italy) – Fly Half – 11.8 stars – TBC
- Tom Willis (England) – Back Row – 11.5 stars
- Thibaud Flament (France) – Second Row – 11.4 stars
- Max Llewellyn (Wales) – Centre – 11.2 stars
- Ellis Mee (Wales) – Back 3 – 11.2 stars
- Will Rowlands (Wales) – Second Row – 11.3 stars
- Jonny Gray (Scotland) – Second Row – 10.9 stars
- Fraser Dingwall (England) – Centre – 10.4 stars
- Mickaël Guillard (France) – Second Row – 10.4 stars
- Jamie Osborne (Ireland) – Centre – 9.9 stars
- Dave Cherry (Scotland) – Hooker – 9.9 stars
- Nicky Smith (Wales) – Prop – 7.4 stars
Supersub Strategy
For those playing the Official Game, we look at potential options for the SuperSub role.
Ultimately SuperSub is a bit of a lottery. You could luck out if one of the starting XV needs to go off in the early stages of the game, but likewise you could be at the mercy of a coach who decides to leave his backs on the bench for the entire 80 minutes, so you have to play the percentages and consider the risks.
As covered in detail in a previous post, for me the key areas to consider in a SuperSub are…
- Will they come on, and will they play a significant period of time
- How the team has used their bench in previous games
- The split of subs on the bench
With this in mind, I will be looking to the following candidates to give the SuperSub selection to in Round 1…
- Matt Fagerson – BR – Scotland
- Luke Cowan-Dickie – H – England
- Jack Conan – BR – Ireland
- Marcus Smith – FH – England
Finally a reminder that my new Podcast project, with PaulShinfo from the r/RugbyUnion Reddit Discord, Six Nations Fantasy Rugby Geeks on the Go is now live. A quick bite-sized 15 minutes dig into the week’s fantasy action. Check it out on Spotify below…
Coming soon – Women’s Six Nations 2025
This week the Women’s Six Nations Fantasy Game went live. As always, I will be covering the tournament in detail here on fantasyrugbygeek.com and the FRG YouTube channel. This week I published a Guide to the Game on the Women’s Six Nations website which you can access here.
The FRG league is now live, so to join, you can access it directly here.
Six Nations 2025 – Join the FRG Leagues!
The FRG Leagues are now live on both the Official Game and Superbru, so get signed up and join our leagues now!
To join on the Official Game, simply join my league directly here.
To join on Superbru, join my league directly here or by downloading the Superbru Rugby app and searching for the league with code: pansoven
Looking for other prize leagues? Then check out the FRG overview of all the Six Nations Mini Leagues and Prize Leagues.
FRG Premium – Join today to elevate your Fantasy Rugby performance
Now live on Buy Me A Coffee, unlock further fantasy rugby insights with Fantasy Rugby Geek Premium! Covering The Rugby Championship, URC, Premiership Rugby, Champions Cup and Men’s and Women’s Six Nations. With your subscription, you’ll see the exact teams that I am playing with, get access to further private posts, and I will also offer you a personalised review of your teams, outlining any opportunities for improvement. All your subscriptions go back into the costs of running fantasyrugbygeek.com!
Also new for 2025, all members have access to an exclusive members only prize league.
Prize for 1st Place
- A £50 voucher to get a print of your choice at The Sports Commentators
- A free rugby mystery box from Blindside Box
- 3 Months free Digital Subscription to The Rugby Paper
- 6 Months free membership to FRG Premium on Buy Me A Coffee
- FRG Trucker Hat
Prizes for 2nd and 3rd Place
- 3 Months free Digital Subscription to The Rugby Paper
- 3 Months free membership to FRG Premium on Buy Me A Coffee
- FRG Trucker Hat
Prizes for 4th to 10th Place
- 3 Months free Digital Subscription to The Rugby Paper
Elevate your fantasy rugby game – subscribe to Fantasy Rugby Geek Premium today and embark on a winning journey like never before! Act fast, and seize your ticket to fantasy rugby glory today!
A big thank you to all the FRG Members who have signed up to FRG Premium (Keeping you anonymous in case anyone in your mini leagues is reading! 🤫)
FRG Partners
Buy me a Coffee!
If you’ve been enjoying the FRG tips over the years, please consider supporting the blog and donating a coffee, all donators will receive a name drop on the next weekly tips, and your donations will help with the running of the blog (and keeping me fuelled to do so!) >>> https://www.buymeacoffee.com/FRugbyGeekBuy me a coffee
If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all the Six Nations fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.
Found this interesting or useful and looking for more Fantasy Rugby news, tips and advice? Follow @frugbygeek on Twitter, Like us on Facebook or sign up to the newsletter below to get fantasy rugby news delivered straight to you!