If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our first instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Guinness 2025 Six Nations. This where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
What will go down…
Into the third round of the 2025 Six Nations and we have 3 matches all with big fantasy points potential.
Wales return to Cardiff to play their first home game of the 2025 Guinness Men’s Six Nations Championship in a state of disorder. Their loss to Italy in Round 2 saw them extend their record losing streak to 14 Tests, drop to an all-time low of 12th in rugby’s world rankings and lose their Head Coach, Warren Gatland. In comes the interim Wales Head Coach, Matt Sherratt, who starts with the toughest of challenges in Round 3, with the currently unbeaten Ireland visiting. Ireland remain on track for a historic Six Nations three-peat and a Grand Slam as well. Ireland will not be taking any chances this weekend and will be going all out for the win in Cardiff. The bookies are seeing nothing but a convincing Irealnd win, expecting them to win by 24 points.
Following Wales v Ireland will be the historic Calcutta Cup match at Twickenham with England taking on Scotland. In recent years this has been a one sided affair with Scotland coming out victorious on the last 4 occasions. In fact in the last 7 years, England have only won 1 meeting between the two teams. Scotland have been hit by injuries and are not quite at the form of recent years, while England are buoyant after a massive win against France in Round 2. Either way, if there is one thing we have learnt about the Calcutta Cup in recent years, it’s that form goes out of the window. Just sit back and enjoy! The bookies are seeing this as the closest match of the weekend, but give England the edge, giving them a win by 8 points.
Wrapping up proceedings in Round 3 is France’s visit to the Stadio Olimpico to take on Italy for the Garibaldi Trophy. In 2024 the two teams were held to a thrilling 14-14 draw in Lille and again the teams enter the match in mixed form. Both teams will be hoping for better weather conditions in Rome than in Round 2, where an 80-minute downpour in Italy’s match against Wales resulted in a match played at close quarters with limited opportunity for the backs to shine. Both sides are packed with attacking talent, and if conditions allow, the fantasy points will flow. Nonetheless the bookies expect France’s class to lead them to success, giving them the win by 20 points.
Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via BoyleSports)
- 1 – Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.5
- 2= – James Lowe (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.67
- 2= – Dan Sheehan (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.67
- 4= – Theo Attisogbe (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.7
- 4= – Peato Mauvaka (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.7
- 6 – Antoine Dupont (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.83
- 7 – Mack Hansen (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 8 – Ollie Sleighthome (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 9 – Luke Cowan-Dickie (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.25
- 10= – Tommy Freeman (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.4
- 10= – Josh Van Der Flier (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.4
- 10= – Jack Conan (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.4
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
HOOKERS
- Peato Mauvaka (France)
- Dan Sheehan (Ireland)
PROPS
- Andrew Porter (Ireland)
- Ellis Genge (England)
- Pierre Schoeman (Scotland)
LOCKS
- Tadhg Beirne (Ireland)
- Thibaud Flament (France)
- Maro Itoje (England)
BACK ROW
- Tom Willis (England)
- Jack Conan (Ireland)
- Gregory Alldritt (France)
- Josh Van Der Flier (Ireland)
SCRUM-HALF
- Antoine Dupont (France)
- Alex Mitchell (England)
FLY HALF
- Sam Prendergast (Ireland)
- Marcus Smith (England)*
CENTRES
- Huw Jones (Scotland)
- Ollie Lawrence (England)
- Jamie Osborne (Ireland)*
BACK 3
- Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France)
- Thomas Ramos (France)
- Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland)
- James Lowe (Ireland)
Recommended Captain Picks
This week I’d suggest the following as Captain Pick options…
- James Lowe (Ireland)
- Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France)
- Jack Conan (Ireland)
Supersub Strategy
For those playing the Official Game, we look at potential options for the SuperSub role.
Ultimately SuperSub is a bit of a lottery. You could luck out if one of the starting XV needs to go off in the early stages of the game, but likewise you could be at the mercy of a coach who decides to leave his backs on the bench for the entire 80 minutes, so you have to play the percentages and consider the risks.
As covered in detail in a previous post, for me the key areas to consider in a SuperSub are…
- Will they come on, and will they play a significant period of time
- How the team has used their bench in previous games
- The split of subs on the bench
With this in mind, I will be looking to the following candidates to give the SuperSub selection to in Round 1…
- Gus McCarthy – H – Ireland
- Julian Marchand – H – France
- Cian Prendergast – BR – Ireland
- Bundee Aki – C – Ireland
Bargain buys on the Official game
The following players, valued at 12 stars or less, have been identified as potentially scoring well for their cost in the game and should be considered as good value enablers…
- Theo Attisogbe (France) – Back Three – 12 stars
- Leo Barre (France) – Back Three – 11.5 stars
- Thibaud Flament (France) – Second Row – 11.5 stars
- Tom Willis (England) – Back Row – 11.3 stars
- Max Llewellyn (Wales) – Centre – 10.8 stars
- Will Rowlands (Wales) – Second Row – 10.8 stars
- Jonny Gray (Scotland) – Second Row – 10.8 stars
- Fin Smith (England) – Fly Half – 10.7 stars
- Dave Cherry (Scotland) – Hooker – 10 stars
- Kyle Rowe (Scotland) – Back Three – 9.7 stars
Finally a reminder that my new Podcast project, with PaulShinfo from the r/RugbyUnion Reddit Discord, Six Nations Fantasy Rugby Geeks on the Go is now live. A quick bite-sized 15 minutes dig into the week’s fantasy action. Check it out on Spotify below…
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