If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our first instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Guinness 2025 Six Nations. This where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
Before we get started, a quick plug for my new Podcast project, with PaulShinfo from the r/RugbyUnion Reddit Discord, Six Nations Fantasy Rugby Geeks on the Go. A quick bite-sized 15 minutes dig into the week’s fantasy action and we were delighted this week to also get some fantasy insight from Bath and England U20 star Max Ojomoh!
What will go down…
Into the first round of the 2025 Six Nations and we have 3 mouthwatering ties to kick us off.
Wales had another tough experience in Round 1 with their visit to Paris resulting in a 43-0 loss that extended their losing run to now 13 test matches. They visit Rome in Round 2 to face an Italy side that will feel disappointed by their performance against Scotland in Round 1 and will want to make amends in the match, that may already decide who will end the tournament in 6th place. Italy have named a very strong starting XV and will definitely be a popular source of fantasy points in Round 2. The bookies are backing the Azzurri, making them favourites and to win by 6 points.
The second match on Saturday is at the Allianz Stadium Twickenham where England host France. France were rampant in Round 1, and have been boosted further by the return of Damian Penaud. England enter Round 2 off the back of a loss to Ireland which had some positives to consider, but in France, things don’t get any easier for England. Steve Borthwick has made a few big changes in what should be a fascinating match-up. The bookies have given France the advantage, forecasting them to win by 5 points.
Finally, Round 2 closes on Sunday with Scotland v Ireland at Scottish Gas Murrayfield. Both teams are coming into Round 2 off the back of a Round 1 win and will want to keep the momentum going. Reigning Champions Ireland will be pushing hard to keep their drive towards achieving a historic three-peat, and have named another strong line-up full of fantasy talents. The bookies are backing Ireland on the road too, backing them to win by 6 points.
Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via BoyleSports)
- 1 – James Lowe (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.8
- 2 – Damian Penaud (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.9
- 3 – Ronan Kelleher (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 4 – Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2
- 5 – Ange Capuozzo (Italy) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 6 – Monty Ioane (Italy) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.4
- 7= – Mack Hansen (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
- 7= – Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
- 7= – Darcy Graham (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
- 7= – Huw Jones (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
- 7= – Jamison Gibson-Park (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
HOOKERS
- Peato Mauvaka (France)
- Giacomo Nicotera (Italy)
PROPS
- Andrew Porter (Ireland)
- Danilo Fischetti (Italy)
- Jean-Baptiste Gros (France)
LOCKS
- Tadhg Beirne (Ireland)
- Will Rowlands (Wales)
- Jonny Gray (Scotland)
BACK ROW
- Tom Willis (England)
- Jac Morgan (Wales)
- Gregory Alldritt (France)
- Sebastian Negri (Italy)
SCRUM-HALF
- Antoine Dupont (France)
- Jamison Gibson-Park (Ireland)
FLY HALF
- Tommaso Allan (Italy)*
- Marcus Smith (England)*
CENTRES
- Huw Jones (Scotland)
- Tommaso Menoncello (Italy)
- Bundee Aki (Ireland)
BACK 3
- Louis Bielle-Biarrey (France)
- Thomas Ramos (France)
- Damian Penaud (France)
- James Lowe (Ireland)
Recommended Captain Picks
This week I’d suggest the following as Captain Pick options…
- Damian Penaud (France)
- Gregory Alldritt (France)
- Jac Morgan (Wales)
Supersub Strategy
For those playing the Official Game, we look at potential options for the SuperSub role.
Ultimately SuperSub is a bit of a lottery. You could luck out if one of the starting XV needs to go off in the early stages of the game, but likewise you could be at the mercy of a coach who decides to leave his backs on the bench for the entire 80 minutes, so you have to play the percentages and consider the risks.
As covered in detail in a previous post, for me the key areas to consider in a SuperSub are…
- Will they come on, and will they play a significant period of time
- How the team has used their bench in previous games
- The split of subs on the bench
With this in mind, I will be looking to the following candidates to give the SuperSub selection to in Round 1…
- Dan Sheehan – H – Ireland
- Julian Marchand – H – France
- Jack Conan – BR – Ireland
- Ross Vintcent – BR – Italy
Bargain buys on the Official game
The following players, valued at 12 stars or less, have been identified as potentially scoring well for their cost in the game and should be considered as good value enablers…
- Emmanuel Meafou (France) – Second Row – 11.6 stars
- James Botham (Wales) – Back Row – 11.4 stars
- Tommaso Allan (Italy) – Fly Half* – 11.4 stars
- Tom Jordan (Scotland) – Fly Half* – 11.3 stars
- Will Rowlands (Wales) – Second Row – 10.9 stars
- Jonny Gray (Scotland) – Second Row – 10.4 stars
- Tom Willis (England) – Back Row – 10 stars
- Dave Cherry (Scotland) – Hooker – 9.6 stars
- Evan Lloyd (Wales) – Hooker – 8.2 stars
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