If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our latest instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Guinness 2023 Six Nations. This is where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
What will go down…
Into the next round of the 2023 Six Nations and after a first week packed with drama we arrive in a Round that contains what may well be the Championship decider!
In a huge clash in Dublin, the two runaway favourites, Ireland and France, square off. Based on the Round 1 eye test and also on home advantage, Ireland are edging it against the reigning champions, but never count out Dupont and co. The bookies are putting it in the direction of Ireland by 4 points, either way, there should be some brilliant attacking rugby and fantasy points to gain.
Over to Edinburgh and the two sides with most differing fortunes from Round 1 go to battle. Scotland stunned Twickenham with a sesnsational performance spearheaded by the unstoppable Duhan Van Der Merwe, while Wales could not get close to Ireland at home, and as a result Warren Gatland has made a raft of changes. This time last year Scotland came unstuck in this fixture in Round 2 (and once again after beating England in Round 1), but they are in a better position to not fall foul again and many including the bookies are backing them for the win. The handicap line is Scotland by 6 points.
Lastly, England welcome Italy to Twickenahm on Sunday afternoon. Borthwick has rung the changes including a big call by dropping Smith to the bench and starting Farrell at 10. Many have seen the changes as a positive, and England’s bench is now fully stacked for a huge impact in the final 20. The bookies are going for an England win by 18 points.
What are your predictions? Make sure you join the FRG league on FANZO (download Fanzo from the Apple App Store and the Google Play Store). Make your picks and win pints, simply download the App and join our league with the code FANTASY.
Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)
- 1 – Max Malins (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.62
- 2 – Ollie Hassell-Collins (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.67
- 3 – Jamie George (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.83
- 4= – James Lowe (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 4= – Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 4= – Alex Dombrandt (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 7= – Damian Penaud (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
- 7= – Freddie Steward (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
- 7= – Jack Willis (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
- 7= – Ollie Lawrence (England) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.5
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
HOOKERS
- Rob Herring (Ireland)
- Jamie George (England)
PROPS
- Ellis Genge (England)
- Andrew Porter (Ireland)
- Pierre Schoeman (Scotland)
LOCKS
- Tadhg Beirne (Ireland)
- Christ Tshiunza (Wales)*
- Lorenzo Cannone (Italy)*
BACK ROW
- Alex Dombrandt (England)
- Caelan Doris (Ireland)
- Josh Van Der Flier (Ireland)
- Jack Willis (England)
SCRUM-HALF
- Antoine Dupont (France)
- Jack Van Poortvliet (England)
FLY HALF
- Finn Russell (Scotland)
- Jonny Sexton (Ireland)
CENTRES
- Ethan Dumortier (France)*
- Owen Farrell (England)*
- Ollie Lawrence (England)
- Huw Jones (Scotland)
BACK 3
- Max Malins (England) – Official Game and SuperBru Captain Pick
- Duhan Van Der Merwe (Scotland)
- James Lowe (Ireland)
- Ollie Hassell-Collins (England)
Supersub Strategy
For those playing the Official Game, we look at potential options for the SuperSub role.
Ultimately SuperSub is a bit of a lottery. You could luck out if one of the starting XV needs to go off in the early stages of the game, but likewise you could be at the mercy of a coach who decides to leave his backs on the bench for the entire 80 minutes, so you have to play the percentages and consider the risks.
As covered in detail in a previous post, for me the key areas to consider in a SuperSub are…
- Will they come on, and will they play a significant period of time
- How the team has used their bench in previous games
- The split of subs on the bench
- How likely the team are to win
With this in mind, I will be looking to the following candidates to give the SuperSub selection to in Round 5…
- Henry Arundell – B3 – England
- Matthieu Jalibert – FH – France
- Alex Mitchell – SH – England
- Ronan Kelleher – H – Ireland
- Marcus Smith – FH – England
Under-the-radar pick
Ollie Lawrence – England have made a number of big changes, but most intriguingly we have a brand new Centre partnership in Lawrence and Slade. Ollie Lawrence has been in hot form all season since his move to Bath, racking up some unreal stats with 3 tries, 2 assists, 10 clean breaks as well as an average of 53m carried and 4 defenders beaten per match (including one match v Saracens where he carried for 194m!). In the Borthwick era he should have more freedom to run riot and he could be the difference against Italy.
Ollie Lawrence v Saracens 😲
— Ultimate Rugby (@ultimaterugby) October 15, 2022
– 80 minutes ⏰
– 5/6 tackles 👊
– 5 passes ✋
– 9 carries 😤
– 2 offloads 👌
– 11 defenders beaten 🔥
– 1 clean break 💨
– 254 running metres
– 2 try assists 🅰️
#GallagherPrem #SARvBAT pic.twitter.com/jxbNlI6pNZ
Come and join the FRG leagues for the 2023 Six Nations!
It seems that there are multiple FRG 6N leagues set up (I think because the leagues are usually capped at 100 players). The good folks at @SixNationsRugby have removed the cap on the main league, so please join this one if you haven’t already -> click here to join for the Official Six Nations game. Also, if you are playing SuperBru click here to join the FRG league.
In addition, join the FRG Pick 4 league here.
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If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all the Six Nations fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.
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