If you are new to Fantasy Rugby Geek, then welcome to our latest instalment of our weekly pre-match updates for the Guinness 2022 Six Nations where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
What will go down…
Into the final round of the 2022 Six Nations and we have 3 back-to-back matches leading to the Saturday night finale to determine whether France can complete their first Grand Slam since 2010. On paper we have three comfortable wins, but as we know, it is never that simple…
First up we have Wales taking on Italy at the Principality Stadium. Wales have had a stuttering Six Nations but will be fired up for the visit of the Azzurri, who, despite some spirited displays, have yet to capture a win. With the entire Welsh team looking to mark AWJ’s historic 150th cap with a big win, this should be a comfortable home win, with the bookies giving Wales a 29 point handicap.
Then the action moves to Dublin where Ireland will be looking to finish on a high and also rack up as many points to make their Points Difference as positive as possible in light of the later match in case England manage to get a result in Paris. While Scotland will not be a walkover, Ireland are a formidable opposition at home and should have enough to take home the win. The bookies are expecting a one-sided affair, giving Ireland a 17 point handicap.
Finally the tournament reaches its climax in Paris with Le Crunch. France have swept all aside this year while England have flattered to deceive. France are gunning for the Grand Slam while England are fighting to avoid a second successive 5th place finish. On paper, this will be all France, and yet, if England get a result, stranger things will have happened. The bookies are treading cautiously, giving France an 8 point handicap.
Top 10 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)
- 1 – Josh Adams (Wales) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.57
- 2 – Louis Rees-Zammit (Wales) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.73
- 3 – James Lowe (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.91
- 4 – Johnny McNicholl (Wales) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2
- 5= – Gareth Davies (Wales) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 5= – Mack Hansen (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
- 7= – Dan Sheehan (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.4
- 7= – Dewi Lake (Wales) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.4
- 9 – Garry Ringrose (Ireland) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.63
- 10= – Antoine Dupont (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.7
- 10= – Gabin Villiere (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.7
- 10= – Damian Penaud (France) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.7
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
HOOKERS
- Dewi Lake (Wales)
- Dan Sheehan (Ireland)
PROPS
- Cian Healy (Ireland)
- Tadhg Furlong (Ireland)
- Cyril Baille (France)
LOCKS
- Paul Willemse (France)
- Seb Davies (Wales)*
- Iain Henderson (Ireland)
- For players of The Rugby Magazine, also consider Maro Itoje, Tadhg Beirne and Cameron Woki
BACK ROW
- Taulupe Faletau (Wales)
- Gregory Alldritt (France)
- Josh Van Der Flier (Ireland)
- Caelan Doris (Ireland)
SCRUM-HALF
- Antoine Dupont (France) – Captain Pick for The Rugby Magazine game
- Gareth Davies (Wales)
FLY HALF
- Dan Biggar (Wales)
- Marcus Smith (England)
CENTRES
- Garry Ringrose (Ireland)
- Uilisi Halaholo (Wales)
- Gael Fickou (France)
WINGERS
- Josh Adams (Wales) – Official Game and SuperBru Captain Pick
- Louis Rees-Zammit (Wales)
- James Lowe (Ireland)
FULL BACKS
- Johnny McNicholl (Wales)
- Melvin Jaminet (France)
Supersub Strategy
For those playing the Official Game, we look at potential options for the SuperSub role.
Ultimately SuperSub is a bit of a lottery. You could luck out if one of the starting XV needs to go off in the early stages of the game, but likewise you could be at the mercy of a coach who decides to leave his backs on the bench for the entire 80 minutes, so you have to play the percentages and consider the risks.
As covered in detail in a previous post, for me the key areas to consider in a SuperSub are…
- Will they come on, and will they play a significant period of time
- How the team has used their bench in previous games
- The split of subs on the bench
- How likely the team are to win
With this in mind, I will be looking to the following candidates to give the SuperSub selection to in Round 5…
- Rob Herring – H – Ireland
- Callum Sheedy – FH – Wales
- Joey Carbery – FH – Ireland
- Peato Mauvaka – H – France
- Nick Tompkins – C – Wales
Under-the-radar pick
Dewi Lake – Taking over the starting Hooker position from Ryan Elias for the visit of Italy, Dewi Lake will be looking to make a big impact with this huge opportunity. Lake was previously a back-rower who has been converted to a Hooker, so he’s dangerous in the loose as well as being a great attacking threat from the Welsh driving maul. Well worth considering if you are looking for a differential within the Wales fantasy assets.
Buy me a Coffee!
If you’ve been enjoying the FRG tips over the years, please consider supporting the blog and donating a coffee, all donators will receive a name drop on the next weekly tips, and your donations will help with the running of the blog (and keeping me fuelled to do so!) >>> https://www.buymeacoffee.com/FRugbyGeekBuy me a coffee
A huge thank you to @TheMagnificentPedro for buying coffees last week. Your support is massively appreciated.
If you back your Fantasy Rugby skills to lead you to Fantasy Six Nations glory and win you some stash while you are at it, then join our public fantasy league on the Official Six Nations Fantasy Game, where a signed paperback copy of the Fantasy Rugby Handbook and a Fantasy Rugby Geek Trucker Hat, will be on offer for the winner of the league. Join the league here.
FRG Partners
Check out our selected partners at Canterbury, LooseHeadz and Oddballs for all your stash needs…
If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all the 2022 Six Nations fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.
Found this interesting or useful and looking for more Fantasy Rugby news, tips and advice? Follow @frugbygeek on Twitter, Like us on Facebook or sign up to the newsletter below to get fantasy rugby news delivered straight to you!