Another of our weekly pre-match updates where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend!
Potential mismatches
Despite the slightly unpredictable nature of the season thus far, the bookies have gone all out when pricing up this weekends matches, expecting more than a few convincing wins. Looking at Paddy Power’s handicap coupon they have given 5 teams the a points advantage of over 10 points, and have give Saracens a points advantage of over 15 points, expecting a considerable reaction to last week’s failure to defeat Bath; and with the return of Billy Vunipola and a further 5 starting Lions, they may be right.
In Paddy Power’s eyes the most nailed on games this weekend with a projected winning margin greater than 10 is…
- Saracens to beat Newcastle with a margin of 17 points
- Wasps to beat Quins with a margin of 13 points
- Leicester to beat Gloucester with a margin of 12 points
- Exeter to beat Worcester with a margin of 12 points
- Sale to beat London Irish with a margin of 10 points
In fact the only game that isn’t expected to be a one way affair is Northampton v Bath, which the bookies are struggling to separate, handing Saints a one point advantage, despite Bath’s scintillating form thus far.
Top 5 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)
- 1 Christian Wade (Wasps) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.83
- 2= Olly Woodburn (Exeter Chiefs) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.9
- 2= Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.9
- 4 Denny Solomona (Sale) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2
- 5 Marcus Watson (Wasps) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 2.1
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
Recommended captain pick in bold
FRONT ROW
Ashley Johnson* (Wasps)
Schalk Brits (Saracens)
Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins)
Alex Waller (Northampton)
Mako Vunipola (Saracens)
LOCKS
Joe Launchbury (Wasps)
Don Armand* (Exeter)
Nick Isiekwe (Saracens)
Bryn Evans (Sale)
BACK ROW
Nathan Hughes (Wasps)
Guy Thompson (Wasps)
Sam Simmonds (Exeter)
Billy Vunipola (Saracens)
SCRUM-HALF
Ben Spencer (Saracens)
Francois De Klerk (Sale)
FLY HALF
Owen Farrell (Saracens)
Gareth Steenson (Exeter)
Henry Slade* (Exeter)
CENTRES
Gabriele Lovobalavu (Wasps)
Will Addison* (Sale)
Phil Dollman* (Exeter)
OUTSIDE BACKS
Willie Le Roux (Wasps)
Liam Williams (Saracens)
Chris Wyles (Saracens)
Olly Woodburn (Exeter)
Denny Solomona (Sale)
Christian Wade (Wasps)
Under-the-radar pick
Chris Wyles – As has been well documented in the lead up to Round 3, the Aviva Premiership show is heading over the pond for the Saturday night battle between Saracens and Newcastle in Philadelphia. The bookies have stacked the odds firmly in Saracens favour with Saracens expected to carve the Falcons up like the steak in Philadelphia’s finest culinary export. With Saracens expected to attack, and with an American hero looking to impress in front of his home crowd, you could do far worse than back Chris Wyles to rack up some points this weekend.
If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all this year’s Aviva Premiership fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.