And we’re underway! A brilliant first weekend of Premiership action is under the belt and the fantasy season is firmly underway! Some sensational performances last week and if you followed our advice of a Sam Simmonds captain pick last week, you should be sitting pretty in your leagues.
This is our latest instalment of our weekly pre-match updates where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend! By the time you finish this article you should have all the insight you need to score big fantasy points this weekend.
Make sure you come back every weekend before finalising your lineups!
Potential mismatches
Now that we have a little bit of form to go by, the hunch that many had with regards this being the tightest season in many a year can be justified. Despite this, the bookies have stuck their neck out with one massive handicap margin this week (for an explanation of why looking at the handicap points spread can be valuable, check out Rule 7 of our 10 Golden Rules of Fantasy Rugby).
In the eyes of the bookies, there is one match that has huge potential for a big points haul, and that is at Allianz Park, where, despite Bristol’s impressive win against Bath last week, Saracens are expected to provide a far sterner test. This will be a true test of Bristol’s credentials in the top flight, Sarries put in a patchy but workmanlike performance and will be expected to be firing with all guns blazing this weekend. The bookies have given them a huge 23 point handicap margin, anything less than a convincing Sarries win will be a shock.
Elsewhere, the remaining matches are expected to be closer affairs. Northampton welcome Harlequins to Franklin’s Gardens on Friday night and are expected to win by 5 points. In the top-of-the-table clash at the Ricoh, Exeter Chiefs are expected to capitalise on Wasps’ injury woes with a close 3 point victory. Under new management, Leicester will want to put a turgid performance against Exeter behind them as they host Newcastle; the bookies expect them to have a positive start under Geordan Murphy, giving them a 7 point winning margin. In the big West Country derby at The Rec, Bath are expected to grind out a win against the highly impressive Gloucester, giving them a tight 3 point handicap margin. Finally, in the Sunday match, Sale Sharks, are expected to put a disappointing opening day performance behind them and register a home victory against Worcester.
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
Recommended captain pick in bold
FRONT ROW
Mako Vunipola (Saracens)
Alec Hepburn (Exeter)
Val Rapava Ruskin (Gloucester)
Alex Waller (Northampton)
Jamie George (Saracens)
Tommy Taylor (Wasps)
LOCKS
Sam Skinner (Exeter)
Maro Itoje (Saracens)
Will Spencer (Leicester)
Courtney Lawes (Northampton)
BACK ROW
Sam Simmonds (Exeter)
Zach Mercer (Bath)
Sione Vailanu (Saracens)
Matt Kvesic (Exeter)
Nathan Hughes (Wasps)
SCRUM-HALF
Cobus Reinach (Northampton)
Ben Spencer (Saracens)
Will Cliff (Sale)
FLY HALF
Owen Farrell (Saracens)
Gareth Steenson (Exeter)
George Ford (Leicester)
CENTRES
Elliot Daly (Wasps)*
Joe Marchant (Harlequins)
Henry Slade (Exeter)
Alex Lozowski (Saracens)
OUTSIDE BACKS
Aaron Morris (Harlequins)
Santi Cordero (Exeter)
Alex Lewington (Saracens)
Nathan Earle (Harlequins)
Alex Goode (Saracens)
Semesa Rokoduguni (Bath)
Byron McGuigan (Sale)
Under the radar pick
Aaron Morris (Harlequins) – Having only made 5 opportunities last season behind Mike Brown in the Quins Full Back pecking order, chances were few and far between for Morris last year. Despite this, when he did play, he always made an impact. In his 5 appearances last year he averaged 95.64 metres carried per 80 and had a PPG Average of 15.46 in Fantasy Rugby Draft and an average Points Per 80 in The Rugby Magazine of 33.85. In short, when he plays, he scores well. Set for his second start in as many games, the general feeling is that he will enjoy a longer run of games this season, so if he is available, sign him up!
Aaron Morris has got some serious wheels! 💨💨💨
A lung-busting 80m try from the @Harlequins full-back. pic.twitter.com/qE9vg39Bex
— Rugby on BT Sport (@btsportrugby) September 30, 2017
Top 5 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)
- 1= – Denny Solomona (Sale) – 1.73
- 1= – Marland Yarde (Sale) – 1.73
- 1= – Alex Lewington (Saracens) – 1.73
- 4 – Alex Goode (Saracens) – 1.83
- 5= – Byron McGuigan (Sale) – 1.91
- 5= – Matt Gallagher (Saracens) – 1.91
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Good luck!
Looking for more Fantasy Rugby insight and Resources?
New for the 2018/19 season, we are proud to present the The Fantasy Rugby Geek Guide to Fantasy Rugby. An exhaustive collection of wisdom and experience gained from over a decade of fantasy rugby playing. Primarily aimed at less experienced players but with enough nuggets of wisdom and insight for even the most grizzled fantasy rugby veteran. There is something here for all players. The eBook is available to download now for £4.99 on Gumroad as a PDF and on Amazon in Kindle format – check it out!
If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all this year’s Gallagher Premiership fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.
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