Another of our weekly pre-match updates where we analyse the weekend’s lineups, crunch the stats and see what the bookies are thinking to help you optimise your lineups for peak performance this weekend!
Potential mismatches
What a crazy unpredictable start of the season this is shaping up to be…
Competitive… This is the first season ever where ALL 12 teams have lost at least one game in the first 3 rounds of @premrugby
— Stuart Farmer (@Stu_Farmer) September 18, 2017
…not even home advantage is telling with some notable scalps on the road including Quins beating Wasps at the Ricoh and Bath taking down the Tigers at Welford road. Despite this, the bookies have backed three home teams to bag convincing wins this weekend.
In Paddy Power’s eyes the most nailed on games this weekend with a projected winning margin greater than 10 is…
- Saracens to beat Sale with a huge margin of 22 points
- Bath to beat Newcastle with a margin of 15 points
- Gloucester to beat Worcester with a margin of 13 points
Exeter-Wasps and Quins-Leicester games are expected to be cagey affairs, while down at the Madejski, two enormously inconsistent sides, Northampton and London Irish face off, and if you are feeling brave, Paddy Power have given Northampton the lead by 9 points.
Top 5 most likely to score (Odds via Paddy Power)
- 1 Semesa Rokoduguni (Bath) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.66
- 2 Sean Maitland (Saracens) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.72
- 3= Liam Williams (Saracens) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.83
- 3= George North (Northampton) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.83
- 5 Matt Banahan (Bath) – Anytime tryscorer odds: 1.9
Expected to go well
*Players who are starting favourably out of position (i.e. Hooker in back row, Centre on wing, etc.)
Recommended captain pick in bold
FRONT ROW
Ashley Johnson* (Wasps)
Jamie George (Saracens)
Val Rapava Ruskin (Gloucester)
Alex Waller (Northampton)
Mako Vunipola (Saracens)
LOCKS
Don Armand* (Exeter)
Maro Itoje (Saracens)
Jeremy Thrush (Gloucester)
BACK ROW
Ruan Ackermann (Gloucester)
Sam Simmonds (Exeter)
Billy Vunipola (Saracens)
SCRUM-HALF
Ben Spencer (Saracens)
Nic Groom (Northampton)
Willi Heinz (Gloucester)
FLY HALF
Owen Farrell (Saracens)
Henry Slade* (Exeter)
Freddie Burns* (Bath)
CENTRES
Max Clark (Bath)
Jonathan Joseph (Bath)
Ollie Thorley* (Gloucester)
Marcelo Bosch (Saracens)
OUTSIDE BACKS
Liam Williams (Saracens)
Jason Woodward (Gloucester)
Sean Maitland (Saracens)
Tom Collins (Northampton)
Semesa Rokoduguni (Bath)
Under-the-radar pick
Ben Spencer – For so long at Saracens in the shadow of Richard Wigglesworth, and promising so much, Ben Spencer is finally getting a regular run of games at Saracens. Pace to burn, a great boot, and a real nose for the tryline, he is a potent attacking threat. In the first appearance at Allianz Park this season, Sarries are expected to go well and you can suspect that Spencer will be very much in the thick of the action. He has a relatively low ownership in The Rugby Magazine game, and if he is available in Fantasy Rugby Draft, then pick him up!
If you want some more sources to help you finalise your decisions, go to our resources page where you’ll find all this year’s Aviva Premiership fantasy games, all the stats sources, injury news, team news, fantasy relevant rugby betting odds and tons of other useful information.